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Play-by-play tactics: pace, shot zones, and IS vs JR
By Ubiond · All news
We looked at play-by-play from thousands of league matches (major nations, Season 72) and millions of field-goal attempts, with each side tagged by its box-score offense and defense. There are enough shots per tactic and position for the splits below to be statistically meaningful. This is a manager-facing summary of pace, shot shape, assists, rebounds, and who contests where.
The biggest shape swing in the sample: from Look Inside to Run & Gun you move about 17.3 percentage points of shots into Long (threes) and about 18.2 pp out of Short (rim). Look Inside sits at 13.6% Long / 50.0% Short; Run & Gun at 30.8% / 31.8%.
In short
- Motion / Run & Gun / Princeton sit near ~30% Long. Look Inside is almost half that.
- Run & Gun is the fastest offense here (~11.9s/poss). Push is close. Patient and Low Post are the slow ones (~14.6–14.7s).
- Push and Look Inside create more (AST/100 ~27–26). Isolations sit near ~20.
- Inside schemes crash the glass more. Who gets the rebound (PF/C vs guards) barely changes by tactic.
- BB still takes far fewer "Long" shots than the NBA takes threes. That helps explain why IS keeps mattering more than JR on a typical roster.
How we bucket shots
BB does not give x/y coordinates. We use the usual PBP event types:
- Short: layups, dunks, hooks, tip-ins, strong finishes
- Mid: top of key, wing/elbow twos, baseline J, putbacks, fall-aways
- Long: corner / wing / straight-on threes, very long, half-court
Free throws are out of the FG mix. Pace is mean game-clock length of timed possessions (same quarter, capped at 35s). Turnover % uses possessions ≈ FGA − OREB + TO (no FTA term).
Pace and shot shape
All ten mapped offenses are in the table (Base, Push, Patient, Look Inside, Low Post, Motion, Run & Gun, Princeton, Inside Isolation, Outside Isolation). Base sits in the middle on pace (~13.65s). Push is fast but still mid-heavy; Run & Gun is the one that really stretches Long.
| Offense | sec/poss | Short % | Mid % | Long % | TO % | AST/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RunAndGun | 11.89 | 31.8 | 37.4 | 30.8 | 11.6 | 24.4 |
| Push | 12.12 | 38.4 | 39.3 | 22.3 | 11.5 | 26.8 |
| Motion | 13.30 | 32.5 | 37.4 | 30.1 | 11.4 | 25.0 |
| Base | 13.65 | 37.4 | 38.3 | 24.2 | 11.9 | 23.6 |
| OutsideIsolation | 13.61 | 37.2 | 40.4 | 22.4 | 12.0 | 20.9 |
| InsideIsolation | 13.71 | 37.8 | 40.2 | 22.0 | 11.8 | 20.1 |
| LookInside | 13.83 | 50.0 | 36.5 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 26.2 |
| Princeton | 14.32 | 36.9 | 32.6 | 30.5 | 11.9 | 24.2 |
| Patient | 14.59 | 37.4 | 39.5 | 23.1 | 12.3 | 20.9 |
| LowPost | 14.72 | 48.7 | 36.0 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 24.5 |
AST/100 = assists per 100 estimated possessions. TO% = turnovers / possessions. sec/poss = mean timed possession length.
Assists by position
The PG still takes roughly 28–33% of assists in every scheme. Run & Gun spreads a bit more toward PF/C. Isolations are simply less collaborative, without a big pace payoff.
| Offense | AST/100 | PG % | SG % | SF % | PF % | C % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RunAndGun | 24.4 | 30.2 | 19.8 | 17.5 | 16.3 | 16.0 |
| Push | 26.8 | 32.6 | 20.3 | 18.4 | 14.6 | 14.1 |
| Motion | 25.0 | 31.1 | 19.9 | 18.7 | 15.3 | 15.0 |
| Base | 23.6 | 29.8 | 21.4 | 18.7 | 15.8 | 14.2 |
| OutsideIsolation | 20.9 | 27.9 | 21.1 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 16.9 |
| InsideIsolation | 20.1 | 28.8 | 20.5 | 19.2 | 15.3 | 16.2 |
| LookInside | 26.2 | 32.4 | 21.3 | 18.2 | 14.5 | 13.4 |
| Princeton | 24.2 | 31.1 | 21.0 | 19.1 | 15.2 | 13.4 |
| Patient | 20.9 | 30.9 | 20.6 | 18.4 | 15.4 | 14.5 |
| LowPost | 24.5 | 31.8 | 21.9 | 18.7 | 14.3 | 12.9 |
Offensive rebounds by offense
Look Inside / Low Post are around ~0.23 OREB per miss. Princeton and Base are lighter (~ 0.18). Bigs (PF+C) still take about ~60% of OREB no matter the tactic: the scheme changes how often you rebound more than who tips it in.
| Offense | OREB/miss | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RunAndGun | 0.192 | 11.0% | 11.0% | 16.2% | 29.6% | 31.1% |
| Push | 0.222 | 10.4% | 10.5% | 16.5% | 30.1% | 32.2% |
| Motion | 0.193 | 11.1% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 29.6% | 31.2% |
| Base | 0.185 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 17.3% | 29.4% | 28.8% |
| OutsideIsolation | 0.210 | 11.2% | 11.1% | 16.6% | 30.2% | 30.7% |
| InsideIsolation | 0.203 | 11.4% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 29.0% | 30.5% |
| LookInside | 0.229 | 11.1% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 29.2% | 30.9% |
| Princeton | 0.182 | 10.6% | 11.2% | 17.5% | 30.6% | 29.6% |
| Patient | 0.210 | 11.4% | 10.4% | 17.1% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| LowPost | 0.230 | 11.0% | 10.6% | 16.2% | 29.6% | 29.9% |
Defensive rebounds by defense
Zones board a little more per side than Man-to-Man here (2-3 Zone ~38.2 DREB/side vs Man ~35.1). Position share stays on the bigs (~60% PF+C). Press steals more; the DREB mix by position barely moves.
| Defense | DREB/side | steal/side | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ManToMan | 35.1 | 6.8 | 11.4% | 11.5% | 16.9% | 29.1% | 30.2% |
| 23Zone | 38.2 | 6.8 | 10.1% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 29.6% | 32.2% |
| 32Zone | 37.6 | 5.8 | 12.9% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 28.1% | 30.6% |
| 131Zone | 35.3 | 6.4 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 17.1% | 28.3% | 29.8% |
| Press | 36.5 | 6.4 | 10.5% | 11.2% | 16.7% | 29.8% | 31.7% |
| InsideBoxAndOne | 37.2 | 5.9 | 13.1% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 27.9% | 30.9% |
| OutsideBoxAndOne | 37.6 | 5.9 | 12.4% | 13.2% | 16.6% | 25.6% | 31.5% |
Shot types and who shoots
League-wide the sample is still 37.6% Short / 38.0% Mid / 24.4% Long. Mid is very much alive in BB. Even the most perimeter offenses only get near ~31% Long.
Event types match the story: Look Inside loads STRONG/DUNK; Run & Gun and Motion push STRAIGHT_ON_THREE / WING_THREE into the top of the list.
| Matchup | Top types (A) | Top types (B) |
|---|---|---|
| LookInside vs RunAndGun | DRIVING_LAYUP 16.3% · STRONG 13.3% · DUNK 11.4% · TOPKEY 6.8% · WING 6.8% | DRIVING_LAYUP 14.9% · STRAIGHT_ON_THREE 9.9% · WING_THREE 8.9% · ELBOW 8.1% · TOPKEY 8.1% |
| LowPost vs Motion | DRIVING_LAYUP 15.4% · STRONG 12.6% · DUNK 11.2% · WING 6.7% · BASELINE_J 6.7% | DRIVING_LAYUP 14.8% · STRAIGHT_ON_THREE 9.7% · WING_THREE 8.7% · BASELINE_J 8.1% · TOPKEY 8.1% |
| Patient vs Push | DRIVING_LAYUP 13.8% · STRONG 8.3% · BASELINE_J 8.0% · WING 8.0% · TOPKEY 8.0% | DRIVING_LAYUP 14.2% · STRONG 8.7% · DUNK 8.4% · TOPKEY 8.1% · ELBOW 8.1% |
| Shooters LookInside · Short | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
| 16.1% | 16.4% | 20.8% | 23.7% | 22.9% |
| Shooters RunAndGun · Long | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
| 25.8% | 31.4% | 27.0% | 11.0% | 4.8% |
Shooter % inside that distance band (dominant box minutes). Short Look Inside is spread across SF/PF/C; Long Run & Gun is guard/wing heavy.
Defenses: who contests by distance
On the ~43% of FG where PBP names a defender, each distance row sums to ~100% across PG–C. Zones put Long contests on the guards (on 2-3, PG+SG are ~67% of Long tags) and keep the center on Short (~34% of Short tags). Man-to-Man is flatter on the arc.
| Defense | Distance | faced % | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ManToMan | Short | 37.2 | 18.2 | 17.0 | 20.2 | 22.5 | 22.2 |
| Mid | 38.2 | 19.6 | 19.5 | 22.0 | 21.3 | 17.6 | |
| Long | 24.6 | 25.5 | 28.5 | 26.7 | 12.6 | 6.7 | |
| 23Zone | Short | 37.0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 22.0 | 25.7 | 34.3 |
| Mid | 38.5 | 19.4 | 18.9 | 20.8 | 24.6 | 16.3 | |
| Long | 24.5 | 34.5 | 33.0 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 2.7 | |
| 32Zone | Short | 38.0 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 30.7 | 33.5 |
| Mid | 37.9 | 15.6 | 15.7 | 17.2 | 25.1 | 26.5 | |
| Long | 24.1 | 31.6 | 28.4 | 29.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | |
| 131Zone | Short | 38.2 | 9.1 | 17.3 | 18.7 | 23.4 | 31.6 |
| Mid | 37.4 | 13.0 | 17.4 | 19.9 | 26.8 | 22.8 | |
| Long | 24.4 | 36.5 | 26.3 | 28.3 | 6.1 | 2.8 | |
| Press | Short | 43.1 | 18.7 | 16.6 | 20.3 | 22.8 | 21.6 |
| Mid | 34.1 | 19.1 | 18.9 | 22.6 | 22.3 | 17.1 | |
| Long | 22.8 | 25.4 | 29.4 | 26.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | |
| InsideBoxAndOne | Short | 37.2 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 18.9 | 27.2 | 28.8 |
| Mid | 38.1 | 18.4 | 16.6 | 17.5 | 23.0 | 24.5 | |
| Long | 24.7 | 21.1 | 22.3 | 19.6 | 21.6 | 15.4 | |
| OutsideBoxAndOne | Short | 36.8 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 18.1 | 25.8 | 27.1 |
| Mid | 38.1 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 19.4 | 21.8 | 21.6 | |
| Long | 25.2 | 23.3 | 22.1 | 22.4 | 19.8 | 12.4 |
faced % = share of all FG against that defense in that band.
Why IS still beats JR (BB vs NBA)
NBA three-point attempt rate was about 39.5% of FGA in 2023–24 (NBA.com). In this BB sample, Long is only 24.4% of FG. Short+Mid still cover ~76% of attempts, and Mid alone is 38.0%.
That is why Inside Shot (IS) keeps coming up in salary and meta talk. A lot of possessions still end as rim finishes (driving layups, strong takes, dunks), where the engine cares about IS. Look Inside makes it extreme (~50% Short), but even Base/Push stay around 37–38% Short.
Jump Range (JR) is what you want when the offense lives on the arc. In the NBA that is most of the sport. In BB it is still a minority of attempts. Raising JR helps threes and some mid jumpers, but it cannot outvote a shot mix that stays mostly inside the Long band. Perimeter tactics do manufacture more threes. They do not turn BB into modern NBA spacing.
On a normal roster that gap is less about a weird salary formula and more about how the engine still feeds interior finishes. Until Long volume climbs toward NBA 3PAr, IS gets more on-ball chances per game than JR. Buy JR when you actually run Motion / Run & Gun / Princeton; do not expect it to replace IS as the default volume skill.
Top level check
We also re-ran the same zone splits on top division only (Serie A / Div I in the big countries) and on BB3 (BuzzerBeater's Best — not BBM). Overall Short / Mid / Long, the common offense shapes (Look Inside vs Run & Gun / Motion), who shoots by position, and who contests by distance all line up with the broad I–IV sample. No second meta shows up at that level. Rare tactics or defenses can wobble when the slice is thin (BB3 especially); the headline picture does not.